3.2 1994
In the early 1990s there was relatively little in the literature on habitat management for marsh fritillary, and, following the 1983 survey, David Wheeler the site manager was very aware of the potential fragility of the isolated population at Rhos Llawrcwrt. He had initially been concerned that increasing stocking rates might have an adverse effect on the butterfly population, particularly as, after the first winter of pony grazing, the 1992 adult index fell to 711 from the 1991 value of 1204. However, the larval index increased from 154 in 1991 to 236 in 1992. Clearly, the index data needed careful interpretation, but the population did not appear to be suffering from the change in grazing management. In 1993 and 1994, both indexes remained high. Superficial observation and some simple surveillance of vegetation structure showed that that the average sward eight was decreasing, the litter layer was breaking up and the larger patches of Molinia were no longer increasing in area. All this data gave the manager the confidence to continue with the winter grazing.
By 1994, the concepts of 'favourable condition', 'attributes' and 'limits' had been introduced to management planning. The next revision of the plan needed to incorporate these into the objectives. Favourable condition for marsh fritillary ¦needed to take account of the cycle of the population in response to the parasitic wasp and other natural factors.
Population size was the obvious attribute to utilise, and David was fortunate in already having data on this attribute in the form of adult and web indexes. The reliability of adult index data was more sensitive to conditions at the time of collection: poor weather for a couple of weeks during the flight period might prevent adults from flying and suppress the annual index to a point where it was an unreliable indicator of population size. The accuracy of any adult count also relied heavily on the competence and skills of the observer. Conversely, the data collection window - larval webs was relatively long and so optimum conditions could be selected. Webs were relatively easy to locate and they did not fly away before they could be identified.  David Wheeler, therefore, opted to use the larval web index as an attribute of population size. The collection of adult index data would continue as a surveillance project. Based on the precautionary principle, the lower limit for the web attribute of webs was set at 50. If in any year the index fell below 50, the managaer would critically examine the management and quality of habitat to identify potential problems. The larval-web surveillance project therefore became a monitoring project. Planning guidance introduced the concept of limits that were used to express a range for any of the factors that may affect a feature. For the first time, the plan could include some quantified requirements for the habitat. 
David Wheeler selected abundance of larval food-plant and average sward height as factors for which I could set operational limits. There already surveillance projects for these two factors, and the manager could use historical data to support the identification of limits. There was still no reference to the habitat requirements of the butterfly in the management objectives for vegetation features.