Renewable energy technologies have the potential
to meet world energy demand many times over and are now ready for
use on a large scale. Wind and solar power are the fastest- growing
energy sources in the world. By some estimates, "new renewables"
(which excludes large-scale hydropower and traditional biomass)
already account for more than 100,000 megawatts (MW) of
grid-connected electric capacity. Globally, new renewable energy
supplies the equivalent of the residential electricity needs of
more than 300 million people.
In 1999, the International Energy Agency noted
that
"the
world is in the early stages of an inevitable transition to a
sustainable energy system that will be largely dependent on
renewable resources."
The world now uses 10 times as much wind energy
as it did only a decade ago, and solar power consumption has risen
sevenfold. Political support for renewables is on the rise as well.
Several countries have recently passed strong new legislation to
support renewable energy, opening markets in a rapidly growing list
of countries.
In fact, the European Union (EU) has established
a target for renewables of 12 percent of total energy by 2010.
National goals in Germany and Denmark have helped stimulate rapid
wind power development that has in turn led to more ambitious
goals. The Danish company BTM Consult, which projects that wind
power could supply 10 percent of global electricity by 2020, argues
that nations should set wind-specific goals, backed up by legally
enforced mechanisms such as those now popular in Europe. The United
States aims to increase wind power's share of electricity to 10
percent by 2010—compared with about 0.1 percent
today—but it has yet to provide such policy support.
The forces for and against change were on full
display at the World Summit on Sustainable Development, held in
Johannesburg, South Africa, in summer 2002. The European Union and
Brazil proposed the adoption of specific numerical targets for the
use of new renewable energy worldwide. Strong opposition arose from
the fossil fuel industry and from the governments of most
oil-producing nations and major fossil fuel users such as China and
the United States. The battle in Johannesburg ended in a
watered-down, non-numerical goal to increase renewable energy use.
But while the world is sharply divided on what kind of energy
future must lie ahead, many nations now view renewable energy as a
credible alternative to fossil fuels.
The rapid expansion of renewable technologies
over the past decade has been fuelled by a handful of countries
that have adopted ambitious and deliberate government policies
aimed to advance renewable energy. These successful policy
innovations have been the most important drivers in the advancement
and diffusion of renewable technologies such as wind and solar
photovoltaics (PVs).
The ultimate step in the decarbonization process
is the production and use of pure hydrogen. As noted earlier, the
gradual displacement of carbon by hydrogen in energy sources is
well under way. Between 1860 and 1990, the ratio of hydrogen to
carbon in the world energy mix increased more than sixfold.
Hydrogen—the universe's lightest and most
abundant element—is known most commonly for its use as a
rocket fuel. It is produced today primarily from the steam
reformation of natural gas for a variety of industrial
applications, such as the production of fertilizers, resins,
plastics, and solvents. Hydrogen is transported by rail, truck, and
pipeline and stored in liquid or gaseous form. Though it costs
considerably more to produce than petroleum today, the prospect of
hydrogen becoming a major carrier of energy has been revived due to
advances in another space-age technology: the fuel cell.
An electrochemical device that combines hydrogen
and oxygen to produce electricity and water, the fuel cell was
first used widely in the U.S. space programme and later in a number
of defense applications such as submarines and jeeps. While these
cells were traditionally bulky and expensive, technical advances
and size and cost reductions have sparked interest in using them in
place of internal combustion engines (ICEs), central power plants,
and even portable electronics.
Nongovernmental organizations, working with local
communities, can make a difference on a small scale, as in
Thailand, but alone they will not bring about the transformation
necessary for movement toward a renewably powered world.
Additional environmental costs of conventional
energy production and use include destruction wrought through
resource extraction; air, soil, and water pollution; acid rain; and
biodiversity loss. Conventional energy requires vast quantities of
fresh water. Mining and drilling affect the way of life and the
very existence of indigenous peoples worldwide. In China, the
environmental and health costs of air pollution, due mainly to coal
burning, totaled approximately 7 percent of gross domestic product
(GDP) in 1995. The World Bank estimates that under business as
usual, these costs could rise to 13 percent of China's GDP by 2020.
After a decade-long study, U.S. and European researchers calculated
that the environmental and health costs associated with
conventional energy are equivalent to 1-2 percent of the European
Union's annual GDP, and that the price paid for conventional energy
is significantly lower than its total costs. These estimates
do not include the costs of climate change— potentially the
most expensive consequence. Global economic losses due to natural
disasters, which are in line with events anticipated as a result of
global warming, appear to be doubling with each decade, and annual
losses from such events are expected to approach $150 billion over
the next 10 years.
The direct economic and security costs associated
with conventional energy are also substantial. Nuclear power is one
of the most expensive means of generating electricity, even without
accounting for the risks of nuclear accidents, weapons
proliferation, and problems associated with nuclear waste.
Political, economic, and military conflicts over limited resources
such as oil will become more significant as demand increases
worldwide. Similarly, the price of fossil fuels will become
increasingly erratic as demand rises and conflicts rage in oil-
rich regions, which in turn would affect the stability of economies
around the world. The economic costs of relying on imported fuels
are extremely high—it is estimated that African countries
spend 80 percent of their export earnings on imported oil.
Likewise, the benefits of reducing imports can be significant. If
not for Brazil's 25-year ethanol program, which now displaces
220,000 barrels of oil per day, the country's foreign debt would be
about $140 billion higher, according to one estimate.
Some governments are striving to surpass Kyoto
goals and take a longer- term perspective. The United Kingdom has a
goal of cutting its carbon emissions to 20 percent below 1990
levels by 2010. In March 2000, the government unveiled a new
package of policies including a climate change levy, negotiated
agreements with energy-intensive sectors and car manufacturers, and
a requirement that electricity suppliers generate at least 10
percent of their power with renewable energy sources. An expert
committee appointed by the Swedish government has looked even
further ahead and mapped out a long-term national strategy for
halving greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Key parts of the plan
include tighter efficiency regulations for housing, industry, and
offices; the introduction of a car tax; and the expansion of
subsidies for wind power.
Decarbonization may be an especially useful
concept for developing countries. As experience with industrial
nations has shown, emission "baselines"—the starting point
against which trends are measured— using net emissions can be
highly problematic because they are subject to changes in economic
growth rates. This is even more so for developing nations, where
emissions trends have been volatile in recent years. A 1999 U.N.
Development Programme (UNDP) study asserts that "baselines
constructed using carbon emissions per unit GDP...tend to be less
variable and less subject to factors beyond the control of
policymakers, and arc thus a better indicator of whether a country
is continuing to make progress in de-coupling emissions from
economic development."
The UNDP study, which contains casestudies of
Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Mexico, and several African
nations, finds that these countries are slowing emissions growth
through a range of policies adopted more for their social,
economic, and environmental benefits—energy savings, lower
air pollution, reduced oil imports—than for their carbon
cuts. This suggests a seemingly counter-intuitive lesson for all
nations: that it may be easier to implement decarbonization
policies when their non-climate benefits are emphasized.