Direct and indirect costs of crime in terms of human, social and economic losses seriously distort development priorities and goals. Expenditures on the maintenance of law and order divert funds urgently needed in other sectors and are a heavy burden on national budgets. Problems encountered include the emergence of sophisticated forms of crime new to many countries lacking the experience and resources to respond adequately.

Although attempts have been made to put a "price" on traditional types of crime, none has been acceptable. The really important costs of crime are damage to the quality of life, incapacitated and frightened victims, restriction of movement, and so on, but these costs cannot be linked directly to a country's economic situation. The remedy that has gained much support in recent years is that of victim-support. The cost of such schemes is small compared with other costs of crime and crime control.

The relationship between the advance of technology and other aspects of economic development, and the rate and type of criminal activity can be measured somewhat more precisely, but still leaves a lot to guesswork. Many criminal justice officials and research criminologists believe that the link between "organized crime" and legitimate business is growing stronger. Telecommunications makes it possible, even easy, to carry out fraud and embezzlement over a wider geographical area and on a much grander scale.

National economies are likely to suffer increasingly from costs and effects of conventional crime, growth of organized crime, including the use of legitimate or quasi-legitimate organizational techniques and structures for illegal economic grain and from costs of attempts to control crime. Based on findings of the first and second United Nations Surveys of Crime Trends, Operation of Criminal Justice Systems and Crime Preservation Strategies, projections of recent trends suggest that criminal justice systems are a major growth industry. For every 100 recorded crimes in 1975, there are now 160; for every 100 police officers there would be over 170; and for every 100 adults in prison, there would be over 200.

Economic growth might bring some increase in some types of crime, while others will decrease. However, types likely to increase are those that are most likely to be reported, so that an increase in recorded criminality could possibly accompany a decrease in unrecorded traditional criminality. However, unrecorded crime, specifically in respect to economic crime, is likely to continue to grow rather than decrease.

The broad category of different techniques involving technology for the non-violent but illegal acquisition and use of money seem likely to grow considerably; it will directly affect the economy of some, perhaps many, countries. Many criminal justice practitioners and policy- makers believe that the most effective tool for prevention and control of such activities is the forfeiture or freezing of assets. To ensure wide practice, the banking industry's co-operation is needed, including less secrecy.

The preceding are projections and not forecasts. However, they do show that a huge increase in demands made upon the national economy by the criminal justice system is, at least, highly likely, and perhaps inevitable in many countries. Because prison is a very expensive institution in any country, an even more alarming feature is the fast-rising number of adults in prison. The cost of prison service alone is beginning to make criminal justice a major component in the budget of every country's public sector. On the one hand, more police officers are being recruited, leading to more arrests; and on the other, there is evidence that courts in many countries are handing down longer sentences because they perceive themselves faced -with a rising crime wave. The self-amplifying nature of this phenomenon is particularly worrying, in that the larger police force "creates" the impression of a larger crime problem by arresting more suspects. It is thus extremely difficult to determine how much of the increase is genuine and how much is the result of policies adopted in the different criminal justice agencies. However, in this context, the even more important issue is that the impact on the national budget will continue to increase. One response for a national administration is to allow the continued strengthening of the "intake" end of the system, the police, but not to expand the capacity for disposal after trial. That results in overcrowded prisons, however, which both offend generally accepted standards of human rights and are widely thought to be themselves criminogenic.

In summary, the rising levels of recorded crime and of State responses to it can be expected to have a significant and deleterious effect on many national economies by the year 2010. The harm done to individual victims may not be easily quantifiable in economic terms, but organized crime—and with it a threat to legitimate business practices—seems likely to grow. Finally, the rising cost of criminal justice will compel the diversion of resources from more popular and desirable components of the public sector.