From 1985 into
the 21st century the populations of both the developed and the developing regions
have grown older. This is so in the sense that the median age and the proportion of elderly (60
and over) increased. Between 1985 and 2000, the median age increased by 3.8 years in the
developed regions and by 2.8 years in the developing regions as a whole. But in Africa it
remained virtually constant. There was a very large increases in the number of the elderly in all
regions, reflecting growth rates considerably greater than the growth rates of the total population.
The world's elderly population grew by about 2.5 per cent annually between 1985 and 2000,
compared with 1.7 per cent annually for the total population. The annual rate of growth of the
number of elderly in the developing countries is now about 3 per cent, almost twice as high as in
the developed countries. Nonetheless, the share of the elderly in the total population has not
increased very much between 1985 and 2000. In the developed countries, it has risen from 16 to
19 per cent; in the developing countries, from 7 to 8 per cent (in Africa it is 5 per cent). For the
world as a whole, it has increased from 9 to 10 per cent.
Dependency ratios
seek to capture the changes in the relative proportions of the economically
active population, which is conventionally defined as the age group between 15 and 64, and those
which are younger or older. This is obviously a gross simplification. In many countries, most of
the young contribute to production before the age of 15 and in others, much later. Similarly, some
adults retire from active economic life before the age of 65 and others, only later. Minor
differences between the ratios in different countries should not be regarded as significant,
therefore, but major changes will reflect economically important aspects of a changing population
structure.
For the world as
a whole, the old-age dependency ratio (the ratio of those over 65 to those
between the age of 15 and 64) did not change much between 1985 and 2000, rising from 10 to 11
per cent. This was more than offset by a 5 percentage point decline in the child dependency ratio,
and the total dependency ratio fell from 65 to 61 per cent. The decline corresponds closely to the
overall trend in the developing countries (including China), where the average old-age
dependency ratio rose by 1 percentage point and the child dependency ratio fell by 8 points. The
total dependency ratio dropped from 71 to 64 per cent. In the developed countries, however, the
old- age dependency ratio increased by 3 percentage points and the child dependency ratio fell by
that amount, so that the total dependency ratio remained constant at 51 per cent.
There is little
likelihood of the projected changes in age structure being nullified, either by
unforeseen events or by policy-induced changes in fertility or mortality patterns. During the
twenty-first the aging of the world's population is a virtual certainty. Thus it provides a firm
foundation for long-range planning. Projections for the long to 2025 indicate that,
in the more
developed regions, the elderly proportion would increase by 9.2 percentage points. In the less
developed regions, the proportion is projected to increase by 5.5 percentage points.
In the process
of modernization, increased life expectancy and lower fertility tend to be
accompanied by a weakening of the extended family. This weakening raises new demands for
the support of the older age group. Until recently, this has been an issue primarily in industrialized
countries. Now it is a world-wide concern. Policies of mandatory ages of retirement were
regarded as socially progressive when work was regarded as painful and retirement could be
appropriately financed. Now they have to be rethought in countries where rising health standards
have prolonged potential working life. In many developing countries, there will be a need to
develop social institutions to compensate for the declining role of the extended family. Developed
countries face growing tax burdens on the economically active population, competition for
resources to provide for the needs of children and the elderly, and a need to allocate costs and
responsibilities of caring for the elderly between Governments, individuals, and families. These
challenges may be magnified by declines in the productivity and mobility of the labour force.
