Labour force growth trends are determined by
changes in population structure and participation rates. The growth
of the labour force in the 1990s slowed significantly in the
developed regions and China but remain fairly stable in the
developing regions. For the world as a whole, the average annual
rate of labour force increase has declined dramatically to 1.5 per
cent during the period from 1990 to 2000. This compares with 2. 1
per cent during the period from 1970 to 1980 and 1.9 per cent
between 1980 and 1990. The average annual increase declined
slightly from 41 million in the 1980s to 39 million in the 1990s;
more than 35 million of the increase occured in the developing
countries. An important policy question for the 21st century is
whether growth in the demand for labour will be able to absorb this
increasing supply.
About 58 per cent of the world's population aged
10 and over in 1980 were members of the labour force, including
those without jobs who were looking for employment; overall, the
participation rate was 73 per cent among males and 43 per cent
among females. The rates varied significantly among regions,
especially for females, ranging from about 60 per cent in the
centrally planned economies to about 10 per cent in North Africa
and Western Asia.
Persons aged 25 to 59 comprised 65 per cent of the
world labour force in 1985 and accounted for virtually all of the
labour force increase in the 1990s. That group is projected to
increase in the into the 21st century at the same rate or higher
than in the 1980s in most regions, except for Latin America where
the annual growth rate is projected to decline from 3.2 to 2.9 per
cent. The projected annual rates of increase for other regions are
between 2.7 for the developing countries in Asia and 3.0 per cent
for Africa. The increased concentration of the labour force in the
group will tend to increase overall labour productivity, because
this group is more experienced, on average, than the labour force
under 25 years of age.
The proportion of the labour force in the 10 to 14
age group is negligible for the developed regions but averages 5
per cent in the developing regions, reaching 7.9 per cent in
Africa. This proportion is in sharp decline in every region of the
world except for Africa, and the trend is projected to continue in
the 21st century.
Decelerating growth of the number of youth (aged
15 to 24) in the labour force will be a new phenomenon in in
several regions of the world. There will be absolute declines in
some countries. These changes will be caused primarily by declines
in the size of the youth population and also by its declining rate
of labour force participation. Based on the projections of labour
force participation made by the International Labour Office,
the number of youth in the labour force in East Asia (including
Japan and China) will decline at an annual rate of 3 per cent;
there was a positive growth rate of 2.3 per cent in the 1980s. In
southern Asia (including Western Asia and Southeastern Asia), the
annual growth rate will fall from 2 per cent in the 1980s to about
1 per cent in 2010. The youth labour force in the more developed
regions will decline 0.2 per cent per year, compared with an annual
increase of 1.0 per cent in the 1980s. Overall, the total number of
youth in the world labour force will grow much more slowly in the
first decade of the 21st century (at an average rate of 0.5 per
cent) than the1.1 per cent rate of the 1980s.
The elderly labour force, aged 60 years or older,
comprises 5.4 and 5.0 per cent of the total labour force in the
developed and the developing regions respectively. Its projected
rates of annual increase are relatively modest: 1.2 per cent for
Latin America, 1.5 per cent for the developed regions, 1.7 per cent
for Asia, and 2 per cent for Africa.
In both developed and developing regions, the
percentage of women in the economically active population has
increased since 1950; women represented 36.5 per cent of the
world's labour force in 1985. Relatively little change is expected
in women's average labour force participation rate in most regions.
Moderate increases in participation by middle-aged and older women
in some regions will be offset by lower participation by younger
women, as they spend more years in full-time education. However,
the projected trends do not take into account possible policy
changes. Some changes with a large potential impact are already
visible in 1988: legal equality has been achieved in many
countries, and more affirmative actions favouring women's
participation are being implemented. If encouraged by further
policy initiatives, women's overall economic participation may well
be greater than currently projected.