Forty-one percent of the world's population
resided in urban areas in 1985: 72 per cent in the developed
regions, 69 per cent in Latin America, and about 30 per cent in
Africa and Asia.
The definition of urban areas differs from one
country to another. The smallest places that are classified as
urban range between 200 and 30,000 people. The process of
urbanization, defined as an increase in the proportion of
population living in urban areas, is largely a oneway process
leading to a concentration in the pattern of population
distribution.
The dynamics of population growth,
industrialization, and agricultural modernization are expected to
keep urban population growth rates above the rural growth rates in
all regions. The urban population of developed countries is
expected to rise from 71.5 per cent in 1985 to 74.8 per cent by the
year 2010. In Africa, it is expected to increase from 31 to 41 per
cent; in Asia (including Japan), from 28 to 35 per cent; and in
Latin America, from 69 to 77 per cent. The number and size of
"megacities" will increase rapidly in developing countries.
Despite the continuing exodus to urban areas, the
population residing in rural areas still comprises a majority in
most developing countries. Approximately one third of the total
population increase in the developing countries in the 2000's will
occur in rural areas. In the developed countries, the rural
population accounted for less than 28 per cent of the total
population in 1985, and it is projected that the share will fall to
25 per cent in the year 2010
The total rural population of the developing
countries (including China) is expected to increase at an average
annual rate of 1.24 per cent during the period from 1990 to 1995
and at 0.96 per cent per year between 1995 and 2010. In Latin
America, the growth of the rural population nearly halted after
1980. The size of its rural population (125 million in 1985) is
projected to be practically unchanged through the first decade of
the 21st century. Rural population growth in Africa, however, was
about 2.1 per cent per year in the period from 1980 to 1985, and in
Asia it was about 1.45 per cent per year. By the year 2010, the
rural growth rate is projected to fall slightly in Africa, to about
1.8 per cent, and substantially in Asia, to about 0.8 per cent, due
to migration and declining rates of natural increase. Nevertheless,
the rural population will still comprise a large majority in these
regions: Africa, 59 per cent; East Asia (including Japan), 67 per
cent; and southern Asia (including Southeastern and Western Asia),
63 per cent.
Rural-to-urban migration is only one type of
population movement within a country. There are movements from
urban to rural areas, among urban areas and among rural areas. All
types of migration are intimately related to social and economic
changes and have significant policy implications. However, it is
difficult to assess the situation, due to lack of statistical
data.
An analysis of data from 57 countries, both
developed and developing, indicates that the annual rate of net
in-migration in urban areas (the number of in-migrants net of
out-migrants divided by the urban population) ranged between 0.9
and 4.6 per cent in the developing countries and between 0.03 and
2.9 per cent among the developed countries. In Latin American
countries and in the developed countries, there is a tendency for
female rural-to-urban migrants to outnumber their male
counterparts. Male migrants are relatively more numerous in Africa
and Asia. Among the 57 countries surveyed, 24 had sex ratios of the
migrants (number of males per too females) smaller than 80, while
migrants in 10 countries had sex ratios over no. These migrants
tend to be young. In the developing countries, around 25 per cent
of the migrants were aged 15 to 24, and in the developed countries
more than 20 per cent were in that age bracket; in some countries,
the proportion was much higher. Another 20 to 40 per cent were
children under the age of five.
From 2004, the definition of internal migration
becomes a problem for European countries that are members of the
enlarged European Community. Already there are moves on the part of
the original members to put up barriers to what they envisage will
be a mass movement of workers from east to west.