International migration has been motivated by
economic considerations throughout history. In recent times
migration for resettlement, labour migration, and flows of
undocumented migrants have been associated with significant
economic disparities between sending and receiving countries.
Although the forces giving rise to the movement of refugees are
often non-economic in nature, the presence of refugees has economic
repercussions.
During the past 50 years, the two main
destinations of labour migration have been the industrialized
countries of Western Europe and the oil- producing countries of the
Middle East. Migration was promoted by the Governments of receiving
countries in both regions to satisfy the labour needs of their
growing economies. The labour- importing countries of Western
Europe and the Middle East have at different times experienced a
period of expansion followed by a recession. Inflows of foreign
labour served to fuel or maintain the expansion, but during the
recessions some migrants departed, often as a result of measures
taken by the receiving country, while others remained.
Labour migration to Western Europe was officially
stopped around 1974, but migration to the Middle East increased
rapidly at that time and peaked by about 1983. The discontinuation
of labour immigration in Western Europe did not, however, stop
migration completely. The adoption of policies favouring family
reunion fuelled the continued growth of the foreign population in
most receiving countries, except Switzerland. By 1982 there were
nearly 13.2 million foreign residents estimated to be in the main
receiving countries of Western Europe (Federal Republic of Germany,
France, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland,
Switzerland, Belgium, the Netherlands, Sweden, Austria, and
Luxembourg). By 1980, there were approximately 2.8 million foreign
workers in the Middle East. Lack of reliable data makes that
estimate a tentative one and precludes definite assertions about
the evolution of migration during the early 1980s. Data on work
permits issued by the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, and
Qatar indicate a decline as of 1983 and 1984. Although the inflow
of migrant workers may be declining, an increasing proportion of
them appear to be remaining after the completion of their initial
contracts. Thus, as in Europe, the total foreign population in the
Middle East may not decline even if the inflow of foreign labour is
stopped.
In addition to the benefits accruing to the
workers themselves, employers in the receiving countries during the
period of expansion benefited from the importation of labour that
tended to prevent sharp rises in domestic wages. Unemployment in
the receiving countries was mitigated, however, by the departure of
foreign workers in periods of contraction. Their return tended to
reduce wages, increase unemployment and underemployment, and reduce
foreign exchange earnings in their home countries.
The selectivity of migration has had undesirable
effects in some sending countries whose emigrants have tended to be
better educated and to possess higher skills than the average
population. In those countries the depletion of the pool of local
skilled labour has been a serious impediment to the expansion of
modern economic activities. Opportunities for migration have
encouraged some people in other countries to invest in their own
education. Although returning migrants tend to bring back some of
their foreign earnings, other benefits that might be expected from
the return of migrants have not always materialized. Migrants have
generally experienced negligible occupational upgrading while
abroad, and those choosing to return seem to be negatively selected
in terms of skills, age, or health status. In addition, some
sending countries often lack the open and flexible socio-economic
environment that stimulates the success of the innovating
individual.
Among the factors responsible for immigration to
the United States, satisfying the need of the economy for workers
plays only a minor role. It is interesting to note, nonetheless,
that the number of foreign- born persons living in the United
States in 1980, 14.1 million, is of the order of magnitude of the
number of foreigners in the former labour- importing countries of
Europe. This foreign-born population in the United States included
the survivors of permanent immigrants (about 9.2 million from 1956
to 1980), a small number of temporary workers and trainees
(approximately 300,000 of whom were admitted since 1971), and an
estimated 2 million undocumented immigrants. From 1981 to 1987, the
United States admitted 4 million permanent immigrants and about
500,000 temporary workers and trainees. In addition, some 1.7
million people have applied for legal residential status under an
amnesty programmeme for certain groups of undocumented
immigrants.
Predicting likely trends in international
migration is a precarious task, because it is greatly affected by
unpredictable political, economic, and social circumstances in both
countries of origin and destination. International migration can
change dramatically, even reversing direction, in a comparatively
short time. For some countries, net migration is relatively small.
Consequently, in the preparation of estimates and projections at
the national level, no migration was assumed. For those countries
that have a long history of international migration, a simple
constant net migration flow was assumed. For other countries it was
generally assumed that the current migration flows would decline
and reach zero at around the year 2000. For countries in which
migration has been of a temporary nature resulting from either
civil conflicts, sudden change in the national economy, or specific
governmental policies, migration was assumed only for the period
from 1985 to 1990.
Refugee movements form a most dramatic type of
international migration. Conventional refugees are those who have
crossed an international border to avoid being persecuted or to
escape war-like conditions in their home countries. De facto
refugees include those who have left their country under normal
departure procedures but are prohibited from returning home without
risking their lives owing to intervening events there.
The current global refugee population is
estimated to be about 12 million. Some four-fifths are found in
developing countries, including somewhat less than one third in
Africa. During the past few years some Western countries have
tended to restrict the granting of asylum. There is reason to
believe that the proportion of refugees accommodated in the
developing countries will be increased in coming years, even though
developing countries have experienced serious socio-economic
problems with hosting large refugee populations.
Approximately half the global refugee population
is currently assisted through official schemes. Examples are
reception centres, holding centres, camps, or designated land
settlements and villages. The remainder have found a place to stay
on their own, sometimes illegally or in consultation with local
people and authorities, often in areas bordering their home
countries. In addition to relief supplies, these schemes to aid
refugees often include social infrastructure, such as schools and
health centres, to which local people may also have access. But
distribution of food and other relief items is limited to refugees,
even in areas with groups of destitute local people. With the
exception of land settlements where refugees are given plots to
cultivate, income-generating activities have been developed for
only a small percentage of refugees in most official schemes. In
some cases, refugees in official schemes do not receive their
entitlements; distributions are irregular, and they must find
supplementary sources of income. Thus they often provide labour and
services for surrounding host populations. Barter systems involving
the exchange of donated relief items for items of local production
between refugees and their hosts have developed in some areas. A
recent large-scale survey of the socio-economic conditions of
refugees in Pakistan, host to about one fifth of the estimated
global refugee population, found that new arrivals have less means
at their disposal per household member than those who arrived
earlier. They are also most frequently subject to irregular food
distributions. Some refugees have experienced conflict with local
citizens when seeking employment or agricultural land, or when
collecting firewood and other natural
resources. Similar friction has been reported in
other countries as well.
In areas with relatively abundant resources and a
buoyant local economy, refugees are often well received. They are
willing to engage in menial tasks despised by others, including
unskilled manual work for local farmers. Refugees will search for
vacant land and develop their own agriculture, or supply unskilled
and semi-skilled labour to local building contractors and
manufacturers. Some take up crafts and trade and increase the
varieties and quantity of locally available goods. But because more
of the casual and unskilled work is undertaken by the refugees,
their activities may indirectly worsen the conditions of some
members of local vulnerable groups such as female heads of
households, the disabled, and the elderly who all depend on this
work for their incomes. Over time, friction between refugees and
these groups may materialize, and some refugees or local destitute
groups may leave the area. On balance, the refugee inflow
contributes positively, however, to the general development of
areas with adequate resources and economic growth.
In poorer areas, refugees are resented by many.
As they flood the labour market, wages drop for casual labour and
even for semi- skilled and skilled jobs. Local prices for food,
fuel, medical supplies, and commodities often rise. Refugees may
collect firewood for fuel in neighbouring areas and further afield,
contribute to deforestation in some areas, and impede the access of
local people to common property resources. Although employers
benefit from the ready labour supply provided by refugees, many
workers and destitute groups do not. The resentment may lead to
violence, with the result that a part of the refugee population may
be relocated and have to start again in a new setting.
It is impossible, of course, to predict whether
the size of the world refugee population will tend to increase over
time because of the unpredictability of conflicts that give rise to
them. Nonetheless, in countries that currently host large numbers
of refugees, budgetary provisions will have to be made to provide
assistance during the foreseeable future.